In recent days, public opinion in Vietnam has been stirred up when Do Minh Tuan – Chairman and a vice chairman of the Thanh Hoa province’s People’s Committee suddenly disappeared, and Vice Chairman Mai Xuan Liem temporarily took charge of the operation.
Notably, the state-controlled media used the phrase “unusual absence” but according to observers, this may be just the tip of the iceberg in a large-scale investigation campaign in the important political area of Thanh Hoa.
Not only that, but a series of figures who were closely associated with the land of Thanh Hoa such as Do Trong Hung, Deputy Head of the Central Committee’s Organization Commission who is also a former Secretary of the Thanh Hoa Provincial Party Committee, and Minister of Agriculture Do Duc Duy were also absent from many important events. According to insiders, the turmoil in Thanh Hoa these days is linked to the strategic move of General To Anh Dung, a figure who can participate in “clearing the way” for a major change in the upcoming political upper echelon.
That means that the number 2 candidate for the General Secretary position at the 14th National Congress, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, is facing a very high risk of being eliminated. Regarding the possibility of why Chinh could be eliminated, according to international analysts, it could stem from three prominent reasons:
– First, it is related to the power network in Thanh Hoa, accordingly, Thanh Hoa has long been a political “base” where many figures with close relations to PM Chinh have held important positions. The investigation spreading here shows that the political patronage system that Chinh relies on may be collapsing piece by piece.
– Second, the weakness of Chinh and the Thanh Hoa faction in the fierce factional competition in the race before the 14th National Congress slated in January next year. PM Chinh is assessed to be gradually losing support from “interest groups” which is an important support to maintain his position.
Meanwhile, incumbent General Secretary To Lam is consolidating power with a series of anti-corruption moves and strictly controlling personnel. Another reason is considered to be the most decisive, which is the “chess game” of the North-South High-Speed Railway worth $67 billion.
Chinh is accused of doing everything possible to make billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong’s Vinspeed Company a “front” for Chinese investors in this super project. This project is considered a “project of the century” and will decide the future of Vietnam’s infrastructure development for many decades. But the fact that PM Chinh is using all means to let Vinspeed act as a front, shielding Chinese capital and technology, will create the risk of economic dependence, even affecting Vietnam’s strategic sovereignty.
According to analysts, the North-South High-Speed Railway Project is Chinh’s “double-edged sword.” If successful, this will be the greatest “legacy” that Chinh leaves for posterity.
But on the contrary, if it is proven that there are group interests, or hidden ties with the Chinese leadership, this will be a “fatal” weakness that makes Chinh’s political career impossible to save.
In particular, when General Secretary To Lam has an “unfriendly” attitude towards Beijing, this could become a strong enough reason to eliminate Chinh from the race.
But many opinions say that Chinh still has a “narrow door” if he finds a stronger political alliance. However, it is highly likely that Chinh is becoming the “scapegoat” in To Lam’s pre-14th National Congress purge.
If the elimination scenario takes place, it will not only be a simple personnel change but also reflect the fierce power struggle within the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Which scenario will Vietnam follow after the 14th National Congress to avoid repeating the “factional tragedy” or continue the cycle of eliminating each other with seemingly endless, secretive political calculations?
Tra My – Thoibao.de
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PM Chinh likely to be removed by General Secretary To Lam after the Party National Congress
“… From the political upheavals in Thanh Hoa province to the North-South High-Speed Railway chess game, it is showing that Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s position is more fragile than ever.”
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