In the past, the army was still a land of struggle between two major forces. The force of Luong Cuong with some generals from the General Department of Politics, and the frection of incumbent Defense Minister Phan Van Giang with generals from the General Staff. The General Department of Military Intelligence has long been a place where the two forces have fought. Currently, General Giang’s group holds the position of General Director of the intelligence.
The Defense Ministry is the place where many members of the Party Central Committee are assigned. In the 2021-2026 term, the army has 21 members of the Party Central Committee and 2 members of the Politburo. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Public Security has only one member of the Politburo and one member of the Party Central Committee but five members of the Politburo are former or curent police generals. In terms of budget, the Defense Ministry also gets much larger fund compared to that of the Ministry of Public Security.
If the Defense Ministry were not divided into five factions, they would likely be much stronger than the Ministry of Public Security and also have an advantage over the police forces. However, due to the lack of unity, the military factions let the Ministry of Public Security surpass them.
Incumbent General Secretary To Lam established a three-legged tripod, in which the pillar of the Defense Ministry is very important. As Secretary of the Central Military Commission, To Lam has a great advantage when combining his existing power with the military general from Hung Yen to compete for power. With two members of the Party Central Committee in hand, Hung Yen has a great opportunity to rise. Among them is Hoang Xuan Chien – Senior Lieutenant General, Deputy Defense Minister, who is considered very close to the Minister’s chair.
Chien is currently 64 years old. He will turn 65 on April 12, 2026. Thus, if the 14th party’s National Congress takes place in January 2026 and Chien does not enter the Politburo, it is considered that he will retire and say goodbye to his political career. At that time, the General Secretary’s investment will be “in vain.“
Preliminary results at the 11th Plenum of the Central Committee, Nguyen Tan Cuong was selected to be a member of the Politburo while Hoang Xuan Chien was left out. It seems that the military area is still not a place where the Hung Yen faction can realize its ambition to take over.
Some people assess that the results of the 11th Plenum have decided 90% of the possibility of arranging the Politburo for the next term. With less than 8 months left, it is very difficult for To Lam to make efforts to make changes according to his wishes.
Actually, Hung Yen in the Defense Ministry is not as closely connected as Hung Yen in the Ministry of Public Security. In the Ministry of Public Security, the relationship between To Lam, Luong Tam Quang and Nguyen Duy Ngoc is like a family. However, the relationship between Chien and Nguyen Hong Thai – Commander of the 1st Military Region is not close. The fact that To Lam has held the position of Secretary of the Central Military Commission for a short time cannot create the glue that binds Hung Yen in the army.
Giang will remain in the Politburo and be appointed to the position of State President, while Cuong will enter the Politburo and hold the position of Minister. This is a great victory for Giang’s faction. At this 11th Plenum, Giang, without any alliance with anyone, won a great victory. He once again prevailed over Luong Cuong when he ousted him from the position of State President for the next term and also blocked Chien’s path, causing To Lam’s ambition in the Defense Ministry to be “shattered.“
With General Giang’s preliminary victory, Vietnam’s political arena promises to have equally matched battles. Because when Cuong leaves his seat and Chien retires, it is natural that only Giang and his juniors will control the Defense Ministry. Once the army general sits in the position of the Four Pillars but holds a whole ministry with superior muscle power, then To Lam’s police faction will not be able to easily manipulate the political arena as it is now.
In the military, Hung Yen is losing ground, let’s wait and see. What is To Lam looking for and how will he fulfill his ambition?
Thai Ha-Thoibao.de
